A seasoned warrior will often open the distance as his first move. If he is closing on you the fight has already been going on longer than you may know. Why is that? The answer is actually very simple. The seasoned warrior either studied (or learned the hard way) all about the great military sage, Sun Tzu. “Before one goes to war, do the calculations and prepare.” There are thousands of details to set in place if you wish to go to war. Revolution is no different.
First Look Around Yourself
Everybody knows what Supplies are. Almost everyone has heard the word “logistics”. When one is going to war the very first question of Supply and Logistics is manpower. I give a rough and dirty estimate of the current manpower available for an actual American Revolution in the next 4 years. Unless there is a major political shift in that time, this is it, Boys and Girls.
You need 30% to 35% of the healthy able-bodied men in the country to stand up with you. Short of that, revolution is just fancy suicide right now.
As a retired military officer involved in planning and a little logistics, I must stand by my numbers. Women and children cannot stand against the kind of firepower that would be brought to bear. Nobody is going to quit their job before there is a significant chance of success. Human nature. Rough estimate: the population is a pool of 320 million, you are drawing from a pool of 80 million able-bodied males. Disallowing the unfit and handicapped it’s closer to 70 million (and a fraction on my calculator).
Only about 10% to 15% of humans are psychologically capable of taking independent action of any kind, much less violent action, without community or group support (fact). Now we’re down to 60 million in the pool.
For a moment let’s take an often used estimate of political division in the country 30-30-40 active (very optimistic, dem, gop, ind). Of the 30% who may be sympathetic to the cause only 10% to 15% will be willing to take action. Of those, only 10% to 15% will be capable of doing so independently. Even fewer capable of planning and leading what I call Constructive Violence, an absolute necessity for any warfare.
The total pool from which we may recruit is about 52 million able bodied men and only about 2 million of those are leaders capable of independent action. These are the same men who are fully capable of evaluating the plan for revolution. These men will make their own independent judgments on your proposed actions; you cannot stop them from it. Among those you will be lucky to find a half dozen capable military leaders.
We’re down to about 6 guys out of the whole population. I could go further, but my point is made. I’m talking about a leader the caliber of George Washington or George S. Patton here.
That’s just getting the guys. Now we have to get the weapons and supplies caches. I guarantee the establishment will destroy every one they can find and that they will find most of them no matter how well they may be hidden. Remember the struggle will be independent minded men while the establishment will be millions upon millions of mindless bureaucrats who never think about what they are actually doing.
Where Do We Begin?
I recommend Charles Luttwak’s book “Coup de’Tat: Handbook” and the collected works of Trevor Dupuy (voluminous) as a STARTING PLACE for the education of these leaders. West Point ought to come close. You can do your screening for these guys by eliminating everybody who is not a Chess Champion first. (That’s only a little bit of an overreach.) Any suitably intellectual sports jock might work, also.
Good Luck On That
Seriously, you need something that angers America to action. The current rhetoric is not enough. I cannot recommend against armed action without general support because that kind of thing is what got John Brown hanged.
We are closer today than in the 1850s lead-up to the Civil War, but not so close as to warrant military action by militia against well trained and better armed troops. By the time they fired on Sumpter many months before they were ready for war, they already had their very own well trained army.